A number of folks have now asked me whether I’ve read Martin Jacques’ recent book, When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. I have indeed — and found it to be a thought-provoking & interesting read.

It’s certainly an antidote to many – like George Friedman, whose The Next Hundred Years is mentioned in a previous posting – who see China breaking up in the near future as a result of stress from an unresponsive political system. Jacques highlights the forces of unification that have held sway in the nation-state (or, in his view, the ‘civilization-state’) over millennia, and sees a homogenized racial status (i.e., Han Chinese) supporting this unity. He also draws attention to the considerable economic success of the Communist Party over recent decades – a Party significantly different than the Soviet model, and rooted in a long-running Chinese ‘state-tradition’ that has been accepted by its citizens, without ever relying upon popular electoral mandates. The imperial dynasty didn’t share power with other competing groups – e.g., the Church, the merchant class, or other elements of what Westerners considers ‘civil society’ – and its legitimacy does not rest upon their approval either.

Much of this is dependent upon a Confucian world-view, and any Westerner trying to understand Asia has to wrestle with that fundamental difference. [And btw, I’ve found Richard Nisbett’s The Geography of Thought to be a particularly useful guide to that topic. His book is subtitled ‘How Asians and Westerners Think Differently…. and Why,’ and my lectures often contain stories & examples found in that book to illustrate differences.] Jacques discusses this culture, and its collective — rather than individualistic – focus; the corresponding family-orientation of its social mores; and the lack of a rule-of-law approach for resolving conflicts. He throws in many other nuggets as well, discussing the tributary — rather than co-equal – historical relationship with surrounding countries; the implications of the sheer size of the country (a population bigger than North America & Europe combined); China’s simultaneous developed/developing country status; etc.

He does see some problems ahead, mostly in the cultural area. China’s ‘Middle Kingdom mentality’ will struggle to deal with outsiders and other racial types, with “a sense of inherent superiority” (p. 270) that is likely to become even more pronounced.

I’m sure you realize by now that my own views tend to be filtered through an energy/environmental prism, and Jacques pays some attention to these issues, including a section about China’s ‘environmental dilemma.’ He suggests that no one really knows how the country will handle the problem of sustainable growth, but that its leaders have already recognized that a resource-intensive growth model is ultimately impossible – even its current model will ultimately become prohibitively expensive. The very real physical damage being done to that country – its air, water and land – in the name of economic development is extremely worrisome, and I’d add that its lack of a rule-of-law tradition has certainly been a major problem within the environmental arena. Given the poor natural resource base of the country, it also seems that the rest of the world will be dealing with the issues Jacques raises in his book sooner rather than later. (Another recent book well worth a look, Michel & Beuret’s China Safari: On the Trail of Beijing’s Expansion in Africa, makes clear that that road will not necessarily be smooth!)